برترین سودده ها/ زیان‌ده های هفته

شاخص دلار آمریکا در طی 7 روز گذشته اندکی افت داشته است. بعد از بروز مشکلات در سیستم بانکی ایالات متحده به دلیل احتمال ورشکستگی Silicon Valley Bank و Signature Bank سرمایه گذاران از احتمال آهسته شدن روند افزایش نرخ بهره توسط فدرال ریزرو صرف نظر نمی کنند. طبق CME FedWatch اکنون 75% احتمال دارد که نرخ بهره در نشست بعدی فدرال ریزرو در 22 مارس 0.25% افزایش پیدا کند درحالیکه قبلاً پیش بینی می شد نرخ بهره 0.5% افزایش پیدا کند اما اکنون حتی فعالان بازار فارکس نیز چنین احتمالی را در نظر نمی گیرند. اکنون 25% احتمال دارد که فدرال ریزرو نرخ بهره را در نرخ کنونی 4.75% حفظ کند. به همین دلیل علاقۀ سرمایه گذاران به فلزات گرانبها بیشتر شده است. پوند انگلیس تقویت شد زیرا بانک مرکزی انگلیس در نشست 23 مارس نرخ بهره را از رقم کنونی 4% به 4.25% افزایش داد. انتشار آمار خوب اقتصادی از ین ژاپن حمایت کرد. کسری تراز تجاری ژاپن در فوریه تا پایین ترین سطح از آویل 2022 تاکنون افت کرد.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has remained almost unchanged. Investors were disappointed by the increase in United States Unemployment in February to 3.6% from 3.4% in January. The probability of a Fed rate hike (4.75%) by 0.5% at the March 22 meeting fell to 48%, compared to over 70% in the middle of last week. This weakened the US dollar on Friday, but it was still able to maintain growth against some currencies over the past week. The Swiss franc strengthened in anticipation of further tightening of monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank (1%) at its meeting on March 23. This was helped by the increase in the Switzerland Consumer Price Index in February by 3.4% y/y, with most market participants expecting inflation to decrease to 2.9% y/y. The Australian dollar weakened as investors decided that the Reserve Bank of Australia's 0.25% rate hike to 3.6% from 3.35% may not be enough given the inflation rate of +7.8% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2022. The New Zealand dollar also demonstrated a weakening, along with the Australian dollar. This was compounded by the decrease in New Zealand Manufacturing Sales by -4.7% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2022, after a growth of +2.6% in the third quarter. It is worth noting that on March 16, New Zealand GDP for the fourth quarter will be published, which theoretically, after the decrease in sales, may also disappoint investors. Cryptocurrencies fell in price amid difficulties in the operations of the cryptocurrency company Silvergate.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index slightly corrected down after 4 weeks of continuous growth. Investors are waiting for new economic information that will help predict the Fed rate change (4.75%) at the next meeting on March 22. According to CME FedWatch, the rate could be increased by 0.25% with a 69% chance. On March 10, significant data on the labor market United States Nonfarm Payrolls for February will be released. Natural gas in the US has risen in price due to the gradual reopening of the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas, which was damaged by a fire last year. The New Zealand dollar strengthened on the back of an increase in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate to 4.75% from 4.25%. Recall that inflation in New Zealand in the 4th quarter of 2022 reached 7.2% y/y. Data for the 1st quarter of 2023 will be released on April 19. The weakening of the Japanese yen contributed to the preliminary data on the decline in industrial production in January. In addition, inflation in Tokyo in February significantly decreased to 3.4% y/y from 4.4% in January. Investors do not rule out that this may prompt the Bank of Japan to maintain a negative rate (-0.1%) at a meeting on March 10.

شاخص دلار آمریکا در طی 7 روز اخیر برای چهارمین هفتۀ متوالی به رشد ادامه داده است زیرا فدرال ریزرو در اول فوریه نرخ بهره را با 0.25% افزایش به 4.75% رساند. سرمایه گذاران از افزایش بیشتر نرخ بهره تا رقم 5.5% تا انتهای سال 2023 صرف نظر نمی کنند. تولید ناخالص داخلی و حساب جاری مکزیک بهتر از حد انتظار اعلام شدند به همین دلیل پزوی مکزیک تقویت شد. ضمن اینکه تورم در مکزیک در نیمۀ نخست فوریه اندکی افت کرد. صورتجلسۀ نشست ماه فوریۀ بانک مرکزی استرالیا (RBA) منتشر شد و به همین دلیل ارزش دلار استرالیا کاهش پیدا کرد. این بانک قصد داشت نرخ بهره را 0.5% افزایش دهد اما در نهایت با 0.25% افزایش آن را به نرخ کنونی 3.35% رساند. سرمایه گذاران از این موضوع صرف نظر نمی کنند که سیاست انقباضی پولی بانک مرکزی استرالیا در نشست هفتم مارس متوقف شود. لازم به ذکر است که تورم سالیانه در استرالیا در آخرین فصل سال 2022 به 7.8% رسید که بسیار بیشتر از نرخ بهرۀ بانک مرکزی استرالیا است.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued to rise for the 3rd week in a row. Investors do not rule out a further increase in the Fed rate by another 0.25% - up to 5% from the current level of 4.75%. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of this at the Fed meeting on March 22 reaches 82%. The strengthening of the Swedish krona contributed to good data on unemployment. It contracted in January and hit a multi-year low of 6.5%. In addition, the krone continued to win back positively in the form of an increase in the Sveriges Riksbank rate on February 9 to a multi-year high of 3%. Note that on the same day, the Bank of Mexico unexpectedly raised the rate to 11%. This caused the peso to appreciate. The weakening of the yen was supported by a sluggish advance in the preliminary Japan Gross Domestic Product for the 4th quarter of 2022, as well as a record Japan Trade Balance deficit in January. Investors are awaiting the appointment of a new Bank of Japan Governor in the next few days. Earlier, the Japanese government nominated Kazuo Ueda for this post.

رشد شاخص دلار آمریکا در 7 روز گذشته ادامه داشت. پس از آنکه فدرال ریزرو ایالات متحده در اول فوریه نرخ بهره را با 0.25% افزایش به 4.75% رساند، رشد این شاخص شروع شد. توماس بارکین، رئیس فدرال ریزرو ریچموند و تعدادی دیگر از مسئولین فدرال ریزرو در هفتۀ گذشته دربارۀ نیاز به افزایش بیشتر نرخ بهره اظهار نظر کردند که باعث تقویت ارزش دلار آمریکا شد. یک عامل مثبت دیگر این بود که شاخص اولیۀ ضریب اطمینان مصرف کننده در ایالات متحده در فوریه تا بالاترین سطح از ژانویۀ 2022 تاکنون رشد کرد. خرده فروشی در اتحادیۀ اروپا در دسامبر و در مقیاس ماهیانه 2.7% کاهش پیدا کرد و تورم سالیانه در آلمان در ژانویه به 8.7% رسید به همین دلیل یورو ضعیف شد. تولید بخش معدن در آفریقای جنوبی در دسامبر در مقیاس سالیانه 3.5% کاهش داشت و به همین دلیل راند آفریقای جنوبی کاهش ارزش پیدا کرد.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. It has been trading in a narrow range for 2 weeks in a row. Investors are looking forward to the next meetings of the world's central banks: the US Federal Reserve System (February 1), as well as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England (February 2). The Australian dollar rose against the back of a new high in inflation in the 4th quarter of 2022, which amounted to +7.8% y/y. Investors are hoping for a more active rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (+3.1%) at the February 7 meeting. The strengthening of the Canadian dollar was facilitated by the increase in the Bank of Canada rate to 4.5% from 4.25% at the meeting on January 25. Natural gas in the US fell in price for the 6th week in a row. This was due to a decrease in demand against the backdrop of warm weather in the US and Europe. Natural gas is used for heating. The weakening of the yen could contribute to high inflation. In December 2022, it was +4% throughout Japan. In January 2023, inflation in Tokyo was even higher. It renewed its multi-year high and reached +4.4% y/y. Inflation across Japan for January will be released on February 23 and could be high.

شاخص دلار آمریکا تغییر زیادی نداشته است. به دلیل تعطیلی مربوط به روز مارتین لوتر کینگ در دوشنبه، فعالیت سرمایه گذاران در طی هفته زیاد بالا نبوده است. شاید سرمایه گذاران منتظر هستند تا در 26 ژانویه گزارش مربوط به تولید ناخالص داخلی (GDP) ایالات متحده منتشر شود. ورشکستگی صرافی رمزارز FTX و سایر شرکت های کریپتو که نسبتاً به آرامی رخ داد، باعث افزایش قیمت رمزارزها شد. به دلیل انتشار آمار اقتصادی خوب در ارتباط با بازار کار، پوند انگلیس تقویت شد. بیکاری در نوامبر در همان سطح ماه اکتبر (3.7%) باقی ماند. رشد شاخص بهای مصرف کننده در بریتانیا در دسامبر و در مقیاس سالیانه تا 10.5% افت کرد که بسیار بهتر از حد انتظار بود. تورم سالیانه در ژاپن در دسامبر به 4% رسید که بهتر از رقم پیش بینی 4.4% بود و به همین دلیل ین تقویت شد. دلار کانادا اندکی کاهش ارزش پیدا کرد که پس از انتشار گزارش ضعیف مربوط به خرده فروشی در ماه نوامبر رخ داد. کاهش خرده فروشی در آفریقای جنوبی به همراه افت تولید معدن و تولید طلا در آفریقای جنوبی در نوامبر از عوامل منفی برای راند آفریقای جنوبی محسوب می شوند.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index fell and hit a 7-month low. The change in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m in December turned out to be negative (-0.1%) for the first time since May 2020. Investors believe that the beginning of the decline in inflation may limit further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. Accordingly, the US dollar was among the leaders of the weakening last week. The euro, on the contrary, strengthened due to the statement of the European Central Bank about plans to raise its rate by 1.25% during 2023. Now it is 2.5%. Recall that inflation in the EU for December in the 2nd assessment will be published on January 18. Preliminarily, it amounted to 9.2% y/y. The strengthening of the yen was supported by investors' expectations that the Bank of Japan would somehow tighten its monetary policy at the January 18 meeting. The strengthening of the Chinese yuan was supported by a good foreign trade performance in December (China Trade Balance) and relatively low inflation (+1.8% y/y). US natural gas quotes continued to decline for the 4th week in a row due to warmer weather, as well as due to reduced industrial production and demand for gas in Europe.

Over the past 7 days, the change in the US dollar index has been minimal again. As expected, the Fed raised the rate by 0.5% to 4.5% at the December 14 meeting. At first, this caused a negative reaction in the Forex market. Investors decided that the rate would stabilize around 5%. Thus, its growth in 2023 will be minimal despite the relatively high inflation of 7.1% y/y in November. At the end of last week, the dollar index won back almost all losses due to good US economic indicators University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and lower inflation in industry. The Swiss franc strengthened significantly due to the increase in the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate to 1% from 0.5%. The South African Parliament refused to impeach the incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa, the very discussion of this issue had a negative impact on the rate of the South African rand.